Pre-Order Charts and What they Can Tell Us.

Below is data on the retailer pre-orders through the week ending August 11, 2012 as compiled by VGChartz.com.  I love game sales data of any kind, but I find this pre-order data particularly interesting.  My intention is to track these weekly charts and occasionally pull some interesting tidbits.  For example, I've always wondered how closely pre-orders reflect actual first month sales. Is there a general rule of thumb that can be applied - say for example - do pre-orders equate for 40% of first month sales? If so then Darksiders II should sell roughly 550,000 copies in its first month of release.  Actual sales data is difficult to come by, but I may try so I can develop a rule of thumb.

Secondly, measuring how pre-order numbers respond to events in the gaming media seems like a good why to see how marketing can effect game purchases.  I'd be interested in tracking how pre-order numbers change following a big MP reveal, for example.

With all the big releases coming out this fall, now may be the time to start tracking these pre-order figures and seeing what they can tell me.

1	Halo 4	X360	13	23,269	554,994
2	Call of Duty: Black Ops II	X360	14	63,367	552,957
3	Call of Duty: Black Ops II	PS3	14	41,133	335,175
4	Assassin's Creed III	X360	12	7,156	310,556
5	Borderlands 2	X360	6	18,708	289,127
6	Guild Wars 2	PC	21	8,778	221,272
7	Assassin's Creed III	PS3	12	5,517	201,356
8	Borderlands 2	PS3	6	3,645	129,927
9	Madden NFL 13	PS3	3	26,792	126,486
10	BioShock Infinite	X360	34	577	126,308
11	Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon	3DS	438	881	124,807
12	Darksiders II	X360	1	13,060	122,201
13	Darksiders II	PS3	1	6,779	98,220
14	World of Warcraft: Mists of Pandaria	PC	7	15,165	97,119
15	Hitman: Absolution	X360	15	1,716	88,732
16	Animal Crossing	3DS	438	595	79,544
17	Hitman: Absolution	PS3	15	1,415	75,938
18	Final Fantasy XIV Online	PS3	N/A	274	75,373
19	BioShock Infinite	PS3	34	391	73,278
20	Borderlands 2	PC	6	2,250	68,511