The events of Halo 3 seemingly ends the Halo threat. Just as importantly, it ends the Covenant threat. After realizing they had been lied to by the prophets all of the races that had been co-oped into the Covenant abandon the alliance. The prophets that survive disappear. The other minor races like the grunts and the Jackals are of little consequence to humanity. Even the Elites (or Sangheili), the military wing of the Covenant seem of little threat because their leader - the Arbiter - has developed a respect for the bravery of the human race. He desires to build a Sangheili/Human peace, so that the Elites can focus on rebuilding their home planet of Sanghelios. The desire for peace is shared by the UNSC. So all is well...
Not quite. Turns out it is difficult for either side to move on after 30 years of a war of genocide. There are factions on each side that are not willing to forgive and forget. On Sanghelios, the Arbiter has a very lose grip on power. A large faction of elites still want to destroy humanity. For some it is still a religious matter - though they recognize the prophets lied, some still believe the Forerunner were Gods and still believe Humanity is an affront to those Gods. Others simply do not trust humanity to keep any peace agreement. They want to finish humanity off before we have a chance to rebuild and grow stronger
There is one faction of humans who believe the same thing about the Elites - that once they rebuild, they will again turn their attention to destroying humanity. The human intelligence community (ONI) knows that the Arbiter has a weak grasp on power. They also know the faction opposing him want to finish humanity off. ONI understand that given the 30 years of war, humanity needs a chance to rebuild. So their objective is simple...make sure the Arbiter stays in power, while simultaneously funding the opposition to ensure the Arbiter's grip on power remains weak. The idea is that if the Elites continue to fight each other, they can't fight humanity. To do this ONI establishes a group of Agents known as Kilo-5 who make contact with the opposition and sells them weapons to use against the Arbiter. Making this interesting is that the UNSC is unaware of ONI's mission and continues to work on a lasting peace agreement with the Arbiter. So, one hand is shaking the Arbiter's hand, while the other is stabbing him in the back.
Another interesting element of the post Halo 3 universe is the role reversal. Throughout the human-covenant war, the covenant had been technologically more advanced than humanity. But after discovering a Forerunner-created planet (called a shield world) and unearthing a wealth of Forerunner knowledge that had been unknown even to the Covenant, humanity has become the most technologically advanced race in the galaxy. Some of this advanced technology is used to build the Infinity - the 3.5 mile long starship that is the most advanced ship ever created by the UNSC. The Infinity also houses the Spartan-4 program (which also benefits from the newly uncovered technology). Both the Infinity, and the Spartan-4 program will play a significant role in Halo 4.
Also, the problems that humanity faced prior to the covenant war have returned. The human insurrection that spawned the Spartan program has begun to once again gain power. Interestingly, there is some evidence the human insurrectionists are being supplied Covenant weapons. It is unknown, who is is providing them with weapons. Turnabout is fair play I suppose.
So, If you have seen previews from Halo 4 and are wondering why the Chief is still fighting the Elites... this should explain that. There is still a faction of Elites (and other races of the Covenant) that still worship the forerunners and want to see humans destroyed.
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